overbo ([info]overbo) wrote,

Individual Stock Picking is a Fool's Game

One year ago today I shared my bets on the stock market with you, my faithful audience.

The time has come to see how my portfolio has fared.


Summary
Investment StrategyReturn on Investment
Kris' Picks+42.2%
Nasdaq Composite+16.7%
Microsoft (MSFT)+7.3%
Dow Jones Industrials+5.5%


Equity Office Properties (EOP)
Original PriceCurrent PricePrice AppreciationDividend PayoutDividend YieldTotal Gain on Investment
$26.71$35.5533.1%$2.007.5%+40.6%

This stock seems to have panned out well. If any of you ever heard me screaming "The real money to be made is in skyscrapers!" This is the stock I was yapping about. An improving economy with more jobs lowered office vacancy rates and produced better cash flow for these guys. Not much else to say. A potential real estate 'bubble' burst was the big risk here in my mind, but no crash materialized.


Impac Mortgage Holdings (IMH)
Original PriceCurrent PricePrice AppreciationDividend PayoutDividend YieldTotal Gain on Investment
$23.10$17.54-24.1%$3.0013.0%-11.1%

Oh woe is poor IMH. This stock has been a pretty wild ride, but in the end it seems this one wasn't so great. The business itself seems to be doing ok, however many of their clients with variable interest rates have decided to pre-pay their mortgage balances to protect themselves from the higher mortgage payments that may come with higher interest rates. This high rate of pre-payment is cuts into the total amount of interest paid on the loan which means less money for these guys. Investors were not pleased. For the year they were able to sustain their great dividend payment, though it sounds as if they may have to revise the amount a bit lower next quarter.


Korea Electric Power (KEP)
Original PriceCurrent PricePrice AppreciationDividend PayoutDividend YieldTotal Gain on Investment
$9.35$17.8891.2%$0.566.0%+97.2%

This pick merits a 'Booya'. The Won improved against the dollar allowing this power company to buy fuel more cheaply from overseas and relations with North Korea have improved quite a bit, further boosting the already great gains this stock made on its own merit.

  • Post a new comment

    Error

    Your IP address will be recorded 

  • 13 comments

[info]r_transpose_p

August 3 2005, 04:41:07 UTC 6 years ago

So, uh, did you buy any of these stocks?

[info]overbo

August 3 2005, 05:46:39 UTC 6 years ago

Of course I did!

Deleted comment

[info]overbo

August 3 2005, 14:12:44 UTC 6 years ago

All the same, wouldn't you rather be holding a stock that's gone up 20% than a stock that's gone up 5% since you bought it a year ago?

[info]pietro

August 3 2005, 06:53:26 UTC 6 years ago

That's nice. I think I made 15% on KEP (buying it after your recommendation). I guess I should have held it longer.

I think I'm up 30% or so over the last year, but unfortunately, most of my money has been tied up (or wasted) in video projects.

[info]harryh

August 3 2005, 15:16:42 UTC 6 years ago

Yesterday I flipped a coin 10 times and 7 times it came up heads.

I'm clearly a superior coin flipper!

[info]overbo

August 3 2005, 15:25:17 UTC 6 years ago

Does that mean you wouldn't be saying "I told you so" if those stocks had returned -42%?

[info]harryh

August 3 2005, 15:27:23 UTC 6 years ago

*shrug* You're right, I prolly would have.

But my point is still valid. I don't really think your sample size is large enough to be significant.

That being said, hey congrats, you made a bunch of money. Nothing wrong with that.

[info]overbo

August 4 2005, 01:27:12 UTC 6 years ago

I should be congratulating you and your Google options.

[info]r_transpose_p

August 3 2005, 21:42:08 UTC 6 years ago

I had to quickly calculate how probable that was.

17% chance of doing that or better on 10 flips.

[info]r_transpose_p

August 3 2005, 21:44:51 UTC 6 years ago

.004% chance of doing 70% heads or better on 100 flips

[info]harryh

August 3 2005, 21:46:10 UTC 6 years ago

I'm only impressed if you did the calculation in your head.

[info]ywong

August 4 2005, 05:10:35 UTC 6 years ago

So how much money did you ultimately realize off the sale, after taxes, commission, etc?

[info]overbo

August 4 2005, 14:35:28 UTC 6 years ago

I have not sold yet actually. The only one I'm really considering exiting in the very short term is EOP.

I figure 25% of the gains will disappear in taxes, 15% long term fed, and about 10% state tax and commission. At such a high tax load (damn you california) I'm encouraged to hold in the hopes that the thusfar untaxed portion can compound a bit more.

But what I'm really waiting for are stocks that look more attractive to me that I can buy once I sell these ones.

Which reminds me, have I told you about my capital gains tax trick? If not, remind me next time I see you.

Create an Account
Forgot your login or password?
Facebook Twitter More login options
English • Español • Deutsch • Русский…